Market Insights

S&P 500 Overview: Quiet melt-up continues

• Volatility low as money shifts between sectors.
• Defeated at 2800, what can bears do now?
• At current pace, “golden cross” in seven sessions.
• Lyft, Uber, Pinterest IPOs will likely draw Main Street attention to stock market.
• Don’t forget about Apple (AAPL) event next Monday, March 25.

Several Big Stories in Big Companies

• Facebook (FB): Credibility gap widens again. Business model potentially in question after New Zealand incident.
• Boeing (BA): A once-bulletproof name facing potentially unquantifiable risk. Bearish triangle on chart.
• Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk’s star has lost its luster. Plus, potential threat from Kandi Technologies (KNDI).
• Deutsche Bank (DB): Potential relief for financial giant trading at 1/4 book value?

Energy on the Move as OPEC Falls into Line

• OPEC cancels April meeting, may extend cuts
• Russia united with Riyadh. Does Moscow have any reason to accommodate Trump amid Venezuela situation?
• Here come the frackers: EMES, SND, HCLP, CRR, CVIA, FRAC, NINE, CJ
• Servicers and drillers leading. Refiners and integrateds lagging.
• Domestics cutting back: Baker Hughes rig count at 11-month low.

Master Class Case Study: Kraft Heinz (KHC) Negative at S&P

• Bearish things can happen when a balance sheet goes bad.
• Credit is one of our seven catalysts taught at Master Class next week.

‘Nirvana Week’ for Volatility, Consumer Just ended

• Began with strong January retail sales, ended with strong March consumer sentiment.
• Government shutdown quickly forgotten, attention focuses on lower tier of income scale. Wage gains bullish over longer-term for both consumer sector and equities.
• Will take time for Powell to change tune, especially after recent pivot AND dovish central banks overseas.
• Fed balance sheet now in focus.

Russell’s Watch List:

• Netflix (NFLX) trying to break above recent range.
• Careful of rally in chips. NVDA/MLNX deal may have spurred knee-jerk buyers.
• Financials may have more upside based on economy, potential for oil bulls to steepen yield curve.
• DVA, RMD: Health-care names looking sickly as Buffett calls for overhaul.
• Match (MTCH), Splunk (SPLK) and Plural Sight (PS) coming off 50-day MAs.
• Television stocks, overbought now, getting interest into elections: GTN, SBGI, NXST. NYT similar. Pullbacks may draw buying.
• Aurora Cannabis (ACB) still 25% below $14 Cowen target price after Peltz joined team.