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The S&P 500 has potential to accelerate higher as it flirts with last year’s highs. That was the view this morning from John Hoagland at TopstepTrader.
S&P 500 E-mini futures (@ES) have consolidated in a tight range since the beginning of last week. On this morning’s Market Forecast video, Hoagland described the price action as a “coiling-type of situation” and a “bullish flag.”
In particular, he stressed intraday spikes on April 16 and 17 that were followed by small dips in @ES.
“We had a bunch of longs on the way up here and we got too long to rally,” he explained. “Some of those longs may be out and ready to get back into this market.”
The comments were made after the S&P 500 traded in its narrowest weekly range since August. The index has been drifting higher on low volatility for the last month as it overcomes technical damage from the fourth quarter’s selloff. Improving economic data and a focus on quarterly earnings have helped lift sentiment.
Hoagland, Senior Performance Coach at TopstepTrader, reviews key futures contracts and events every day on YouTube. His company evaluates traders based on objective criteria, looking to fund successful candidates with the company’s capital.
While he was looking for @ES to climb back toward 2930, his outlook for gold futures (@GC) and the euro (@EC) were more negative.
“Overnight sellers [are] gaining momentum, bringing more business to the downside on the U.S. trading open,” Hoagland warned about gold. “I don’t want to fight this move until I have found some kind of structure” in the range between 1262.50 and 1269.
Hoagland noticed that gold futures, like the euro (@EC), had only weak volume on positive days. That made him conclude “nobody was really that interested in moving this market higher.”
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