Market Insights

This post is a translation of the weekly cryptocurrency analysis by Crypto Lab, a wholly owned subsidiary of Monex Group (Tokyo, Japan). Monex is the parent of TradeStation Group. Due to the difference in time zone, we’re able to share Friday’s report today.

Summary

• Bitcoin (BTC) continued to enjoy strong buying trends this week and briefly topped $13,000. But then the price fell on comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
• We’re cautious of a potential pullback amid investor complacency and slowing momentum. The first support level to watch is the recent low of $10,900, then $10,000.
• Keep an eye on Congressional hearings about Facebook’s (FB) Project Libra on July 16.

Market Trends This Week

BTC kept rising this week as the gains in equity markets slowed. It briefly pushed above $13,000 but stalled below the highs of late June. There was also a lot of movement in the interest-rate and currency markets as Powell testified in Congress.

Investors sold BTC as the news hit, breaking some short-term trend lines. Still, no significant technical damage was done and prices remain within their range over the last two weeks.

Topics This Week

• Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express enter the trading platform “TradeLens” established by International Business Machines (IBM). (7/2)
• The Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor provides a keynote speech on the need for digital currencies. (7/5)
• Singapore’s tax agency (IRAS) proposes an excise service-tax exemption for crypto-asset operators. (7/5)
• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) issue a joint statement on the regulation of crypto-asset custodians. (7/8)
• Softbank-owned Fortress buys BTC claims from Mt. Gox creditors. (7/8)
• Tech Bureau announces business alliance with NEM.io Foundation. (7/9)
• Tokyo Otaku Mode, bitFlyer Blockchain and other firms begin demonstration experiments of a translation platform called “Tokyo Honyaku Quest”. (7/9)
• The Japan Blockchain Association (JBA) holds regular meetings and reports on the contents of the summit “V20.” (7/9)
• The FSA announced a planning competition to study the potential governance of a financial system using blockchain technology. (7/9)
• GroundX, a subsidiary of South Korea’s Kakao, claimed its new Klatyn blockchain is up to 15 times faster than Ethereum (ETH). (7/9)
• Binance officially launches Binance Singapore, a legal currency-denominated exchange. (7/10)
• Samsung announces a beta version of the Dapps development kit “Samsung Blockchain SDK”. (7/10)
• DMM Bitcoin starts handling Ripple (XRP). (7/10)
• Hong Kong cryptocurrency firm Diginix plans to list shares on the Nasdaq Stock Market via a reverse merger with 8i Enterprises (JFKKU). (7/10)
• Japanese crypto exchange GMO coin starts airing TV commercials. (7/10)
• FB says it won’t launch its Calibra digital wallet service in India amid regulatory opposition. (7/10)
• The Ethereum Foundation releases client software Geth v1.9.0. (7/10)
• Sumitomo Corp. invests in LO3 Energy Inc., which is developing blockchain-powered peer-to-peer energy-trading platforms for smart grids. (7/11)
• The SEC approves a $28 million token offering by the startup Blockstack, according to The Wall Street Journal. (7/10)
• Binance officially starts offering margin trading. (7/11)

Market Forecast for Next Week

We’re cautious about volatility but see continued demand from institutional investors.

BTC’s price action surged and crashed again within a relatively broad range, which suggests large investors are buying and selling more speculatively. This creates opportunities for short-term trading, so it’s important to identify support and resistance levels. Still, over the longer-term it’s hard to envision a sustained drop because larger institutions continue to enter the industry.

Next Week’s Topics

• 7/15: BinanceCoin (BNB) will be installed in a hard fork.
• 7/15: Komodo (KMD) will rebrand and launch its Antara Framework.
• 7/16: U.S. Senate to hold hearing on FB’s Project Libra.
• 7/18: Ycash will branch from Zcash (ZEC).
• 7/19-21: HackAtom to be held in Seoul.