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Market Insights

Bringing you the trading news around the world.

S&P 500 Challenges Falling Trendline: Market Trends This Week

[showmodule id=”58959″]

Downloads available here and here. Anchored VWAP and Keltner pullback here.

Also: multidata crossover strategy.

Register for Market Trends here. Next session is Thursday, May 4.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 holds rising trendline, tries to break falling trendline
  • Reclaims 50-day MA, VIX falls back under 20
  • 50 percent retracements held on 3/24, 3/28
  • Potential upside risk into 4/12 Fed minutes
  • 10-day MA, MACD signaled bounce
  • Index internals (members above 20-day & 50-day MAs) signaled bounce
  • Longer-term MAs in positive sequence: 50-day MA > 100-day MA > 200-day MA

Key Economic News

  • March consumer confidence beats estimates as expectations improve.
    • February revised higher.
    • Labor market weaker (dovish for Fed?)
  • February pending home sales unexpectedly rise
    • NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: “After nearly a year, the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end.”
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select indicators.

Company News

  • Bullish news in semiconductors:
    • Micron Technology (MU): Gains as analysts see inventory cycle turning positive.
    • Intel (INTC): Updated chips coming soon. Xeon (server), “Sierra Forest” (low power)
      • The next “Boeing?” (DJIA comeback following product mishaps?)
  • Alibaba (BABA): Rallies on six-way breakup/spinoff
  • Paychex (PAYX): Earnings, revenue beat estimates
  • Lululemon Athletica (LULU): Earnings, revenue, guidance beats. Pricing strong, China recovers.
  • Delta Air Lines (DAL): Potentially bullish options trade in May 35 calls & May 27 puts

Leaders & Laggards

  • Energy leads rebound from bank panic
  • Chinese stocks, metals outperform
  • Health care continues to lag

Signals Scan

  • Apple (AAPL): Bullish inside week
  • Broadcom (AVGO): Holds 21-day EMA after strong results
  • Applied Materials (AMAT): Holds rising 50-day MA
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Holds rising 21-day EMA
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): Holds rising 50-day MA, Keltner Channel after earnings gap

Mover of the Week: On Holding

On Holding (ONON) +79% YTD

  • Rallied after 3/21 earnings report. Management expects “largely normalized operations.”
  • ONON went public for $24 on 9/14/21, bottomed under $16 last October.
  • !IPO_tool indicator can find recent IPOs

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (3/31): PCE inflation
  • Monday (4/3): ISM manufacturing index
  • Wednesday (4/5): ADP private-sector payrolls
  • Friday (4/7): Non-farm payrolls
  • Wednesday (4/12): Fed minutes

Using the Platform

Platform tool of the week: Strategy back-testing & automation

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-9.25%+45.87+161.37%
As of Feb. 28, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized.

About the author

David Russell
David Russell is VP of Market Intelligence at TradeStation Group. Drawing on two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.

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