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Stocks just rose for the fourth straight month, powered by strong earnings and economic growth.
The S&P 500 climbed 5.2 percent between December 31 and February 29. Two-thirds of the index’s members advanced, along with every major sector. The Nasdaq-100 rose 5.2 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved 2.2 percent higher.
Strong earnings from megacap growth stocks like Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) helped drive the big moves. (See the chart below.) However, non-tech companies like industrials and retailers also rallied after beating estimates. That embrace of “cyclical” stocks may suggest that investors see economic growth driving the market higher.
Several reports last month potentially confirm that view. S&P Global Research raised its forecast for economic growth and the Conference Board abandoned its recession call. Strategists at firms like UBS and Barclays raised their estimates, in part because they expect greater earnings growth. Separately, FactSet reported that stocks are rallying more than normal when earnings beat estimates. That’s a potential sign that investors are optimistic and expect further improvement.
The S&P 500 has made new 52-week highs in 11 of the last 12 weeks, according to TradeStation data. It’s remained above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) since breaking to all-time highs on January 19. Its nine-day rate of change has also remained positive during that time, which may reflect a bullish trend.
March could be quieter because there are fewer earnings. However there are some big economic events with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifying on Capitol Hill next week. The central bank also releases its important interest-rate forecast (“dot plot”) on March 20. See the table below for more details.
| Top Gainers in the S&P 500 Last Month | ||
| Constellation Energy (CEG) | +38% | The electric-utility stock beat estimates and raised guidance. It benefited from tax credits because of its zero-emission nuclear plants. |
| Ralph Lauren (RL) | +29% | The retailer’s earnings beat estimates as strong comparable sales boosted margins. |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | +29% | The chip designer became the market’s third most-valuable company after growing AI demand fueled strong results. |
| Meta Platforms (META) | +26% | Cost cuts boosted profits, establishing the social-media giant above $1 trillion in capitalization. META also initiated a quarterly cash dividend. |
| Quanta Services (PWR) | +24% | The engineering firm beat estimates amid strong demand for energy-transition and infrastructure spending. |
| Top Decliners in the S&P 500 Last Month | ||
| Paramount Global (PARA) | -24% | Takeover speculation lifted the media company in January, but it fell last month as hopes of a deal faded. |
| Charter Communications (CHTR) | -21% | The broadband company missed estimates by a wide margin as subscribers defected. |
| Insulet (PODD) | -14% | The diabetes-testing company’s guidance for the first quarter was lower than forecast. |
| Amgen (AMGN) | -13% | The pharmaceutical company’s results beat estimates, but analysts worried about the growth potential of weight-loss drugs in its pipeline. |
| Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) | -12% | The media company’s revenue missed estimates on weak advertising sales. |
| Consumer Discretionary | +7.9% |
| Industrials | +7.1% |
| Materials | +6.5% |
| S&P 500 | +5.2% |
| Technology | +4.7% |
| Communications | +4.6% |
| Financials | +4.1% |
| Energy | +3.1% |
| Healthcare | +3.1% |
| Real Estate | +2.5% |
| Consumer Staples | +2% |
| Utilities | +1.1% |
Below are some key economic events from last month.
Below are some noteworthy commentaries:
| Product | Current Month | Expiration | Next Month | 1-Mon% |
| S&P 500 E-Mini (@ES) | ESH24 (Mar) | 3/15/24 | ESM24 | +4.7% |
| Nasdaq-100 E-Mini (@NQ) | NQH24 (Mar) | 3/15/24 | NQM24 | +4.8% |
| Dow Jones E-Mini (@YM) | YMH24 (Mar) | 3/15/24 | YMM24 | +1.9% |
| Russell 2000 E-Mini (@RTY) | RTYH24 (Mar) | 3/15/24 | RTYM24 | +4.9% |
| Date | Event | What to Watch For |
| Wed 3/6 | Congressional testimony by Jerome Powell | Comments on interest rates and inflation before policy meeting on March 20 |
| Fri 3/8 | Employment report | Hiring and wage trends in February |
| Tue 3/12 | Consumer price index (CPI) | Inflation trends |
| Mon 3/18 | Nvidia GPU Technology Conference (18-21 March) | AI news and developments |
| Wed 3/20 | Fed interest rate decision with economic projections | “Dot plot” will reflect central bank’s plans for potential rate cuts this year. |
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