Market Insights

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

• Potential short-term range on S&P 500:
  • 5057: 2/27 low
  • 5127: 3/4 low of 5127
• Potential “shooting star” on Monday
• Potential risks:
  • First outside week since mid-October has begun
  • High on 2nd session of March may open door to negative month.
  • VIX making higher weekly lows
• Next catalysts:
  • Tomorrow morning: payrolls
  • Tue 3/12: CPI

Key News:

• Powell testimony leans dovish but is noncommittal
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) replaces Whirlpool (WHR) in S&P 500.
  • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) replaces Zions Bancorp (ZION)
• Ford Motor (F) EV sales +81% y/y in February
• Goldman Sachs bearish on EV battery metals (lithium, cobalt, nickel) amid oversupply.
• Target (TGT) earning beat estimates by 23 percent despite revenue missing by 1 percent. (See Margins below.)
• Apple (AAPL) nears October lows on weak Chinese sales
• Bank of America raises S&P 500 target from 5,000 to 5,400, but sees potential pullback.
• Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG: AAPL weakness may trigger broader pullback

Seven Catalysts for Stock Movement

1. Volumes: More / less business
   • Measured in units, orders, bookings. These often become revenue
2. Margins
   • Selling prices rise / input costs fall = wider margins
   • Selling prices fall / input costs rise = narrower margins
3. Macro trends
   • Economic growth, interest rates, commodity prices
4. Strategic Actions
   • M&A, buybacks, spinoffs, dividends
   • “Financial engineering”
5. Credit
   • Effective use of leverage can increase profitability
   • Debt meltdowns can occur when business contracts
   • Changes in interest rates can impact leveraged companies
6. Business transformation
   • Change in business model, products
   • Example: software transition to subscription model, chipmaker embrace of AI vertical
7. Investor rotation
   • Typically occurs around quarters, years
   • Can result from changes in six catalysts above

Note: Legal / regulatory risk isn’t included because the issue is typically often associated with catalysts cited above

Signals Scan

• Best Buy (BBY): Bullish outside day after “golden cross”
• Amazon.com (AMZN): potential “shooting star” on 3/4
• Tesla (TSLA): potential downside to $152 if $175 breaks?
• MGM Resorts (MGM): downside potential after gap lower?
• Nike (NKE): downside risk to September low under $90?
• Seagate Technology (STX): bearish outside day

Using the Platform

• “First bar” PaintBars are available over various time frames: Day, Week, Month, Year
• On Chart Analysis: Studies → Add Study → PaintBar
• Spans intraday, daily and weekly timeframes
• Also available on RadarScreen and Scanner

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: AVGO, COST, GPS, MDB, MRVL
• Fri 3/8: Non-farm payrolls
• Tue 3/12: CPI
• Wed 3/13: Oil inventories
• Thu 3/14: PPI, retail sales

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