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Confidence Keeps Spreading in this Favorite Corner of Tech
Confidence Keeps Spreading in this Favorite Corner of Tech

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Semiconductors are ripping as evidence keeps suggesting a rebound is coming soon.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) has surged almost 9 percent since the beginning of last week. That’s more than twice the gain of the broader S&P 500 over the same period.

News event after news event have spurred the move:

  • Monday, March 11: Nvidia (NVDA) agreed to purchase Mellanox (MLNX) to grow in the data-center space. Yes, there’s life after the iPhone.
  • Friday, March 15: Broadcom (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan predicted the fiscal second quarter (March-May) will be the “bottom.” After that, he sees “very meaningful growth.”
  • Tuesday, March 19: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) wins a contract to provide chips for Alphabet’s (GOOGL) new Stadia streaming video-game service.
  • Wednesday, March 20: Micron Technology (MU) beat estimates and indicated memory-chip demand will rebound in the current quarter.

These headlines mark a change from the narrative a few months ago, when investors worried about a smart-phone glut slowing orders. Apple’s (AAPL) fourth-quarter meltdown resulted from the weakness.

But the chip industry has responded with capacity cuts — almost like OPEC taking oil off the market. That’s helped support prices and kept the boom-and-bust cycle from getting out of control.

In conclusion, chips are a volatile and economically sensitive industry. And at this point, there’s a growing consensus that the worst of the slowdown is now over.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) showing "golden cross" between 50- and 200-day moving averages.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) showing “golden cross” between 50- and 200-day moving averages.

About the author

David Russell is VP of Market Intelligence at TradeStation Group. Drawing on two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.