Market Insights

This post is a translation of the weekly cryptocurrency analysis by Crypto Lab, a wholly owned subsidiary of Monex Group (Tokyo, Japan). Monex is the parent of TradeStation Group.

Summary

• Bitcoin’s (BTC) continued to gain as it drew capital from various altcoins. That kept the uptrend intact early this week and briefly pushed the price above $5,500.
• Binance launched the distributed exchange Binance DEX, opening the token-listing process.
• Will resistance hold at the top of the range next week? With Japan and China on holidays, there could be big moves on light volume. We’re watching $5,500 as the upper band for BTC and $5,000 as the downside price

Market Trends This Week

BTC came to dominate the trading flow in the last week. The price jumped to its high of the year around $5,500, followed by short-term profit taking. The move was fueled by money exiting altcoins and flowing into BTC.

Futures turnover on CME surpassed physical volumes on Binance. That appears to suggest that short positions in BTC have been eliminated

Late Thursday, it was learned that the New York State Attorney General had sued Bitfinex and Tether on suspicion of “ongoing fraud being carried out by Bitfinex and Tether.” That hammered Bitcoin down toward $5,100 by the evening. Bitfinix has rejected the allegations in an official response, saying “court filings were written in bad faith and are riddled with false assertions.”

Topics of the Week

• Zaif resumed operations under Fisco Virtual Currency following a government supervision in the wake of getting hacked in September.
• Trading Technologies partners with BitMEX to provide crypto access to its customers. (4/17)
• Crypto Garage has developed a peer-to-peer (P2P) protocol to realize virtual-currency derivative transactions for BTC payments. (4/19)
• Robinhood applies for a bank-establishment license from the U.S. Office of Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). (4/19)
• BitFlyer postpones reduction of the virtual-currency leverage transaction maximum rate. (4/22)
• Zaif resumes Monacoin’s cash transaction service. (4/23)
• Tech Bureau released the beta version of the “COMSA HUB” software for the COMSA initial coin offering (ICO) general infrastructure. (4/23)
• Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) inspects the proposed currency-exchange companies Huobi Japan and Fisco. (4/23)
• Bitgate resumes accepting new-account applications as it launches new services. (4/23)
• Binance launches distributed exchange Binance DEX. (4/23)
• Cypto startup Moon enables high-speed payments on Amazon.com (AMZN). (4/23)
• Samsung considers Ethereum-based blockchain and proprietary currency development. (4/23)
• The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry published a report on the applicability of blockchain technology in universities and research institutes. (4/23)
• Binance establishes a virtual-currency exchange in Singapore. (4/23)
• The Brave browser announces advertising platform “Brave Ads” linked to Basic Attention Tokens (BAT). (4/24)
• Monex lets users exchange reward points for virtual currency. (4/24)
• DeCurret releases an Android version of its official app. (4/24)
• Bitfury establishes a mining fund in partnership with a Swiss investment company. (4/24)
• Ripple publishes its first-quarter XRP market report. (4/24)
• Binance discloses Binance DEX’s token listing review process. (4/25)
• New York prosecutors allege that Bitfinex covered $850 million loss using Tether funds. Bitfinix rejected the allegations.（4/25)
• India considers complete ban on digital currencies.（4/25

Market Forecast For Next Week

Will BTC run into resistance at the top of its recent range?

Attention’s now focused on whether BTC can establish itself above $5,500. Market activity is likely to calm next week because of holidays in China and Japan.

It is difficult to think that BTC will collapse based on recent market trends, but the price will fluctuate because virtual currencies remain active on holidays. Traders should be cautious of moves on light volume.

We’re watching a range on BTC between $5,000 and $5,500.

Next Week’s Topics

• 4/29-30: World Blockchain STO Summit in Dubai.
• 4/29: Kraken will delist Bitcoin SV (BSV).
• 4/30: Zilliqa (ZIL) plans to start a token swap to the main net.
• 4/30: Digitex Futures (DGTX) will launch an exchange.
• 4/30: Waltonchain (WTC) is scheduled to begin token-swapping to the main net.
• 4/30: Airdrop of USDT-TRON will start.
• 5/1: Stellar (XLM) plans to renew its web site.
• 5/1: Delivery deadline for Bytom (BTM) Dev Challenge.

Industry Related Trends

Technical Trend: Virtual Currency Exchange Binance Launches Distributed Exchange DEX Officially

On April 23, the leading virtual currency exchange Binance officially launched the decentralized exchange Binance DEX. DEX stands for Decentralized Exchange, with P2P trading using blockchain smart-contract technology. Unlike the conventional centralized exchange (CEX), decentralization can reduce transaction costs while enhancing safety and transparency.

Binance DEX was built on the company’s proprietary blockchain Binance Chain. The exchange token Binance Coin (BNB) was previously issued under the ERC-20 standard for Ethereum. For launch on the main net, it transitioned to the BEP-2 standard. Wallet users supported by Binance Chain will be able to see the web wallet, public data nodes, APIs etc. sequentially.

According to CFO interviews, Binance now has more than 10 million users worldwide. It’s increased its value by incentivizing ownership by large-scale users. On Binance DEX, BNB is mainly used for transaction fees. If DEX’s user keeps growing it would boost the BNB community and potentially lift prices for the token.

Individual Company Trend: Cryto Market Participat Robinhood Applies for Banking License

On April 19, S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that Robinhood Markets Inc. sought a bank-establishment license from the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency. The company provides brokerage and virtual-currency services via mobile apps. The potential move toward a banking license would represent a turn toward services like traditional checking accounts.

Robinhood, valued at $6.5 billion in a Series C funding round last year, is a well-known Financial Technology (FinTech) startup in the U.S. It disrupted equity trading with zero-fee transactions, and has added more than 5 million users after entering the cryptocurrency market. The main source of income is the credit transaction, which lends money to those with Robinhood Gold’s extended trading function and takes interest.

Just as existing financial institutions move into the virtual-currency industry, virtual-currency firms are also moving into the existing financial industry. This is especially true in the United States. It seems to be harder for blockchain-based companies to penetrate the traditional fields, but there could be some interesting consequences of if mutual entry increases and competition intensifies across the industry.

Individual Company Trend: Auditor Deloitte Plans to Use VeChain

On April 18 at the VeChain Summit 2019 in San Francisco, Deloitte announced plans to develop a blockchain solution on VeChain Thor. Vechain Thor is the DApps platform provided by VeChain. It was also announced that company executive Antonio Senatore would join VeChain’s advisory board.

VeChain Thor develops services that combine blockchain technology with IoT technology. It’s used to prevent forgery of branded products, and to centrally manage information on agricultural crops. VeChain has also partnered with PwC, and is now the second company in partnership with one of the “Big Four” auditing firms.

Auditors seem to be interested in VeChain because the technology enhances traceability. Until now, Deloitte used Etherether’s private network to manage business certificates. The company said that the move to VeChain would help it expand its customer base.