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Market Insights

Bringing you the trading news around the world.

Stocks Try to Hold as Bank Fears Drive Volatility: Market Trends This Week

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Downloads available here and here. Anchored VWAP and Keltner pullback here.

Register for Market Trends here.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 tries to hold 50% retracement of the move between October low and February high.
  • Prices try to remain above 2022’s falling trendline.
  • Number of S&P 500 companies above 20-day MA rises above number above 50-day MA.
  • Will it break support before the March 22 Federal Reserve meeting?
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select technical signals.

Key Economic News

  • Economic data is mostly deflationary:
    • February CPI inline with expectations. Shelter still rising.
    • February PPI -0.1% vs +0.3% estimate. Food, transportation costs dropping.
    • February retail sales -0.4% vs -0.3% estimate. Autos -1.8%
    • March Empire index -24.6 vs -8 estimate. New orders fall.
    • Crude oil inventories finally rising: EIA inventories +1.6mln barrels last week.
  • March NAHB homebuilder sentiment 44 vs 41 estimate. 3rd straight beat as traffic improves.

Company News

  • Microsoft (MSFT) gains as OpenAI releases GPT-4.
  • Meta Platforms (META) rises after announcing 10,000 more job cuts.
  • United Airlines (UAL) tanks on profit warning.
    • Consistent with PPI report on transportation costs..
    • Airlines previously showed strong demand trends.
  • Illumina (ILMN) gains on Carl Icahn proxy fight
CME FedWatch tool showing changes in expectations for July 26 meeting. Notice low probability given to rates remaining at their current level.

Leaders & Laggards

  • Financials, banks plunge after SIVB, SBNY failures.
  • Safe havens take the lead as fear spreads: Utilities, consumer staples, health care, precious metals
  • Cyclicals drop on economic worries: Energy, materials, industrials
  • Communications and Technology are now the best performers YTD amid growth comeback.

Signals Scan

  • Nasdaq-100 “Golden cross”
  • Custom scan:
    • 50-day MA above 200-day MA
    • 8-day EMA above 21-day EMA
    • Price near bottom of Keltner Channel
    • Results: Builders FirstSource (BLDR), C3.ai (AI), Mercadolibre (MELI)
  • Hershey (HSY), Boston Scientific (BSX), Stryker (SYK) linger near 52-week highs
  • Financials back near peaks from 2007 and 2020

Mover of the Week: Maxeon Solar

Maxeon Solar (MAXN) beat revenue estimates on 3/7.

  • First quarter with positive EBITDA since 2020 spinoff from SunPower (SPWR)
  • Morgan Stanley expects stronger margins and orders.

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (3/17): Quad witching, consumer sentiment
  • Tuesday (3/21): Nike (NKE) earnings in post market
  • Wednesday (3/22): Fed decision, press conference

Using the Platform

Platform tool of the week: Keltner pullback (custom indicator)

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-9.25%+45.87+161.37%
As of Feb. 28, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Visit www.TradeStation.com/Pricing for full details on the costs and fees associated with options.

About the author

David Russell
David Russell is VP of Market Intelligence at TradeStation Group. Drawing on two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.

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